Europe’s aviation sector is entering a new phase of operational uncertainty, as concerns over jet fuel availability are intensifying due to the prolonged disruption in Middle East energy flows.
Industry stakeholders now warn that, if supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are not restored in a stable manner within the next three weeks, several European airports could face systemic fuel shortages just as the summer travel season begins.
The warning comes from Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe), which reportedly informed EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas that the bloc’s current fuel buffers are becoming increasingly fragile. This is particularly significant because Europe remains structurally dependent on imported aviation fuel. More than 60% of jet fuel used across the continent is sourced from Gulf refineries, while over 40% of these volumes traditionally transit through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most strategically sensitive maritime chokepoints globally.
The latest geopolitical tensions involving Iran have already triggered severe market turbulence. Global jet fuel prices have more than doubled year-on-year, reaching approximately $1,650 per tonne, while Brent crude remains well above pre-crisis levels despite a temporary easing after the recent ceasefire announcement. This sharp cost escalation is putting additional pressure on airline margins, especially for carriers with limited fuel hedging strategies or weaker supply chain resilience.
Although several airports have so far managed to avoid immediate disruption through local supplier interventions, recent incidents in Italy demonstrated how vulnerable the system can be. Temporary supply constraints were reported at Milan Linate, Venice, Treviso and Bologna, before alternative sourcing solutions helped stabilize operations. The episode highlighted a broader structural issue: Europe still lacks a unified mechanism for real-time monitoring and coordinated management of aviation fuel supply risks.
For airlines, this is no longer simply a cost issue. It is becoming an operational planning challenge. Potential consequences include reduced frequencies, route rationalization, schedule adjustments and higher fares during the peak summer period. The risk is particularly relevant for leisure-heavy markets such as Southern Europe, where airport connectivity is closely tied to tourism demand and regional economic activity. Air transport supports hundreds of billions of euros in European GDP and millions of jobs, making aviation fuel security a matter of broader economic resilience.
From an industry perspective, the current situation underlines the need for greater strategic fuel diversification, stronger airport contingency planning and more coordinated European-level preparedness. For now, the summer season has not been materially disrupted. However, the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether this remains a temporary supply scare or evolves into a wider aviation disruption across Europe.
